Greater than half of adults worldwide projected to have chubby or weight problems by 2050
March 04, 2025
5 min learn
Key takeaways:
- World weight problems prevalence greater than doubled from 1990 to 2021 amongst each grownup women and men.
- The prevalence of chubby and weight problems amongst youngsters rose from 8.8% in 1990 to 18.1% in 2021.
Weight problems prevalence elevated amongst each adults and youngsters throughout all areas of the world from 1990 to 2021, and greater than half of adults are anticipated to have weight problems by 2050, in keeping with two experiences revealed in The Lancet.
Two teams of researchers collected information from the World Burden of Illnesses, Accidents, and Danger Components Examine 2021 to estimate world chubby and weight problems prevalence from 1990 to 2021 and venture weight problems prevalence via 2050, with one group of researchers inspecting traits amongst adults aged 25 years and older and the second group assessing weight problems prevalence amongst youngsters aged 5 to 14 years and adolescents aged 15 to 24 years. Each teams discovered massive will increase in weight problems prevalence, with prevalence greater than doubling amongst adults and greater than tripling for kids and adolescents from 1990 to 2021.
Information have been derived from GBD 2021 Adolescent BMI Collaborators. Lancet. 2025;doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00397-6.
Xiaochen Dai
“If unchecked, 3.8 billion adults, over half the worldwide inhabitants, can have chubby or weight problems by 2050, disproportionately burdening low- and middle-income areas,” Xiaochen Dai, PhD, MPH, lead analysis scientist on the Institute for Well being Metrics and Analysis on the College of Washington, instructed Healio. “This disaster calls for pressing, focused interventions to avert extreme well being, financial and societal penalties.”
Researchers in each research used BMI to determine chubby and weight problems. For adults and adolescents aged 18 years and older, chubby was outlined as a BMI of 25 kg/m2 or larger and weight problems as a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or larger. Chubby and weight problems for kids and adolescents aged 5 to 17 years have been outlined based mostly on Worldwide Weight problems Job Pressure standards.
Grownup weight problems prevalence rising
In 2021, about 45.1% of adults worldwide had chubby or weight problems, with greater than half of that group residing in China, India, the U.S., Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Egypt. There have been 133 international locations worldwide the place the age-standardized prevalence of chubby or weight problems for adults was larger than 50%.
From 1990 to 2021, weight problems prevalence elevated by 104.9% amongst ladies and by 155.1% amongst males. The area with the sharpest improve was North Africa and the Center East, the place weight problems prevalence elevated from 23.7% in 1990 to 51.1% in 2021 for ladies, and rose from 9.5% in 1990 to 36.2% in 2021 for males.
If historic traits and patterns proceed, 3.8 billion adults can have chubby or weight problems by 2050, corresponding to just about 60% of the worldwide grownup inhabitants, researchers estimated. The prevalence of chubby and weight problems is anticipated to surpass 80% for ladies in 60 international locations and for males in 54 international locations by 2050.
Dai mentioned the projected improve in weight problems prevalence is alarming since weight problems drives illness comparable to diabetes, heart problems and most cancers and a rise in weight problems burden might put pressure on well being care methods around the globe.
“Well being care methods — particularly in areas like sub-Saharan Africa and Asia — will face twin burdens of infectious ailments and noncommunicable ailments, coupled with growing old populations and workforce shortages,” Dai mentioned. “Different research recommend that direct prices comparable to surgical procedures and medicines, and oblique prices comparable to misplaced productiveness, might cripple economies, with obesity-related gross home product losses forecasted to achieve $4 trillion by 2035.”
Weight problems charges rising for kids, teenagers
The prevalence of chubby and weight problems greater than doubled for kids aged 5 to 14 years, from 8.8% in 1990 to 18.1% in 2021. Equally, adolescents aged 15 to 24 years had a rise in chubby and weight problems prevalence from 9.9% in 1990 to twenty.3% in 2021. Weight problems prevalence alone greater than tripled from 2% in 1990 to six.8% in 2021 in these aged 5 to 24 years. The sharpest will increase in chubby and weight problems prevalence occurred in North Africa, the Center East, Latin America and the Caribbean, in addition to amongst high-income nations.
Researchers estimated that roughly one-third of youngsters and adolescents globally can have chubby or weight problems by 2050. The proportion of youngsters with weight problems is forecast to rise to fifteen.6% by 2050 whereas adolescents are anticipated to have an weight problems prevalence of 14.2% by 2050. Weight problems prevalence is anticipated to be highest in international locations in North Africa and the Center East.
By 2040, weight problems prevalence is anticipated to be larger than chubby prevalence in tropical Latin American international locations, northern Africa and the Center East for each youngsters and adolescents. The next proportion of boys aged 5 to 14 years are anticipated to have weight problems vs. chubby in Central Latin America by 2040, whereas women aged 5 to 24 years in Australasia international locations are anticipated to have the next prevalence of weight problems than chubby.
Jessica Kerr, PhD, an honorary analysis fellow within the Centre for Adolescent Well being at Murdoch Youngsters’s Analysis Institute in Australia, mentioned there are a number of areas of the world the place interventions are wanted to reverse pediatric weight problems prevalence traits.
“Our estimates determine youngsters and adolescents in a lot of Europe and South Asia residing with chubby who must be focused with weight problems prevention methods,” Kerr mentioned in a press launch. “Now we have additionally recognized massive populations, significantly adolescent women, in North America, Australasia, Oceania, North Africa and the Center East, and Latin America which can be anticipated to tip over to weight problems predominance and require pressing, multifaceted intervention and remedy. That is important to keep away from intergenerational transmission of weight problems and to forestall a wave of great well being circumstances and dire monetary and societal prices for future generations.”
Learn how to reverse weight problems traits
In a associated commentary revealed in The Lancet, Thorkild I.A. Sørensen, MD, Dr Med Sci, professor emeritus within the division of public well being sciences at College of Copenhagen in Denmark, wrote that each research present a robust image of how weight problems prevalence will proceed to rise globally. He added that the research revealed how weight problems prevalence traits differ between age teams, women and men, in addition to by geographical area.
Sørensen mentioned reversing weight problems traits globally can be tough, as well being care professionals don’t absolutely perceive the drivers of rising weight problems prevalence except for meals abundance.
Thorkild I.A. Sørensen
“The prevailing focus is on the obesogenic meals setting mixed with choices for [sedentary lifestyles], however it seems that the [obesity] epidemic started a lot sooner than the suspected obesogenic transformation of the societies, with first emergence already earlier than World Battle II in varied areas, together with my very own nation, Denmark,” Sørensen instructed Healio. “Pushing the societies again to earlier than the onset of the epidemic might not make sense and is clearly politically and culturally infeasible. What has been tried to date with regard to way of life modifications doesn’t successfully deal with the issues. Fast escalation of analysis is what I feel is required.”
Dai mentioned a number of varieties of interventions are wanted to reverse weight problems prevalence traits, together with public coverage modifications, strengthening the well being care system to prioritize obesity-related illness and weight problems administration, addressing social determinants of well being, world frameworks led by WHO to fight transnational meals trade affect and tailor-made interventions for subgroups and areas on the highest danger for weight problems.
“With out systemic modifications, weight problems will exacerbate world well being inequities and pressure societies,” Dai instructed Healio. “Quick motion is vital to forestall a ‘polycrisis’ of well being, financial and social destabilization.”
References:
For extra info:
Xiaochen Dai, PhD, MPH, could be reached at xdai88@uw.edu.
Thorkild I.A. Sørensen, MD, Dr Med Sci, could be reached at tias@sund.ku.dk.
Sources/Disclosures
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Disclosures:
Dai, Kerr and Sørensen report no related monetary disclosures. Please see the research for all different authors’ related monetary disclosures.
