Vertex’s New Merchandise Dim as Analysts Eye Kidney Portfolio

Vertex clocked 11% progress within the third quarter, assembly investor expectations. However shares of the corporate noticed stress Tuesday morning because the cystic fibrosis drugmaker’s new merchandise largely stayed within the background. In the meantime, gross sales of gene remedy Casgevy truly declined as sufferers skipped scheduling the process over the summer time.

The corporate recorded income of $3.08 billion, narrowly beating Stifel’s estimate of $3.06 billion, in keeping with a third-quarter enterprise report launched Monday afternoon. Vertex’s cystic fibrosis franchise beat consensus estimates, with Trikafta taking in $2.65 billion and new entry Alyftrek providing $247 million.

However its new non-opioid ache treatment Journavx missed analyst consensus of $23.3 million by about 15%, taking in simply $19.6 million for the quarter. William Blair attributed this to free drug sampling as Vertex tries to ramp up curiosity, moderately than an absence of demand. Since turning into accessible in March, Vertex has already crammed 300,000 prescriptions by mid-October, the corporate mentioned.

Vertex’s shares declined about 4% to $409 apiece in pre-market buying and selling on Tuesday morning, in comparison with $426 at shut Monday.

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets referred to as Journavx’s progress “sturdy,” whereas noting that continued affected person help packages could also be wanted to spice up uptake into the following yr. Vertex has to this point secured protection from two of the three massive pharmacy profit managers within the U.S., in addition to “unrestricted entry” by Medicaid for 19 states, the corporate mentioned.

Taken collectively, Vertex has assist for greater than 170 million sufferers, which the corporate claims is “greater than half” of coated lives within the U.S.

“It’s vital to notice that we’re constructing a long-term ache franchise right here the place, clearly, we need to safe broad entry for sufferers, however we additionally need to guarantee long-term worth of our medicines,” Duncan McKechnie, Vertex’s chief business officer and head of North America business, mentioned through the earnings name on Monday. He added that Vertex is working with a 3rd main PBM to additional increase entry.

The affected person help packages could must proceed to encourage extra adoption of Journavx, a number of analysts agreed. “Journavx income progress continues to be muted even when TRx has been constructive with affected person help packages doubtless nonetheless consuming into internet value for the rest of 2025,” BMO wrote.

Vertex will ultimately must part out the packages, leaving Journavx to talk for itself, BMO added.

“We predict this program can construct [total prescription] momentum and prescriber consciousness, it stays to be seen whether or not this share seize could be maintained as soon as [patient assistance] packages are eliminated,” the analysts wrote.

In Cystic fibrosis, Vertex is working to modify sufferers from its stalwart Trikafta to new child on the block Alyftrek, permitted in late 2024, whereas concurrently increasing into new geographies. Alyftrek’s gross sales outcomes appeared to please analysts, with momentum that factors to a gradual progress path.

“In our view, extra switching will doubtless occur over time, however given the shortage of clear scientific differentiation, many Trikafta sufferers (per our [key opinion leaders] checks) are OK ready particularly as a swap to Alyftrek requires liver monitoring within the early interval,” Stifel wrote on Thursday morning.

William Blair was nonetheless optimistic as the brand new product made some headway.

“In cystic fibrosis (CF), we discover early metrics on Alyftrek progress compelling and anticipate seize of recent CF sufferers, in addition to Trikafta switchers, to proceed as care suppliers achieve extra familiarity and luxury with Alyftrek,” the agency wrote in a be aware Tuesday morning.

As for Casgevy, gross sales of the remedy had been $16.9 million within the third quarter, which was a 44% decline in comparison with the earlier quarter. William Blair was nonetheless inspired by Vertex’s income steering of $100 million for the complete yr. Nevertheless to achieve that, Vertex would want to attain a minimal 128% enhance in income within the fourth quarter, or about 25 affected person infusions.

This might be a steep objective, as Vertex has beforehand acknowledged that sufferers are likely to delay beginning remedy over the vacations. Executives had been, nonetheless, optimistic that the gene remedy may obtain progress this yr.

“Given the very effectively understood length of the remedy journey and the truth that we now have important numbers of sufferers at each stage within the course of, Casgevy has a robust outlook, and we’re excited to serve the rising numbers of sufferers by the tip of this yr into 2026 and past,” Stuart Arbuckle, chief working officer, mentioned on the earnings name.

Higher Than The Relaxation?

Amid stress elsewhere, analysts turned to the pipeline—or as BMO put it: “The kidney is looking.”

Vertex may snag an approval for its kidney illness drug povetacicept by the tip of subsequent yr. CEO Reshma Kewalramani previewed an information readout for the drug coming this weekend on the American Society of Nephrology assembly in Houston.

“[Povetacicept] knowledge are extensively anticipated to be good, the query being whether or not they’re clearly higher than rivals,” Stifel mentioned.

In its earnings report Monday, Vertex introduced that it has totally enrolled the Section III RAINIER research of povetacicept in IgA nephropathy, which the corporate expects will probably be sufficient to assist an accelerated approval submitting. Vertex is “on monitor” to file the primary batch of information for its rolling biologics license utility this yr and expects to finish the submission within the first half of 2026, the corporate mentioned.

This timing, in keeping with analysts at Leerink Companions, may construct as much as an approval late subsequent yr. “If interim outcomes are constructive, it could full the submitting in 1H26 and anticipate approval by year-end 2026,” Leerink wrote in a Monday be aware.

Designed to be administered by way of a self-injector, povetacicept is a fusion protein that works by blocking the BAFF and APRIL cytokines, each of that are concerned within the exercise and survival of immune cells and underpin disease-causing autoimmunity. Apart from IgAN, Vertex can also be creating povetacicept for major membranous nephropathy, a life-threatening kidney illness, for which the drug is in Section II/III improvement.

With povetacicept poised for a number of scientific and regulatory milestones in 2026, BMO expects “buyers to shake off any launch headwinds” related to Vertex’s non-opioid ache medication Journavx. “With a possible full submitting anticipated in 1H26, povetacicept is shortly shifting to turn out to be a focus in Vertex’s evolving late-stage pipeline,” BMO added.