Are 5 Million Nondisabled Medicaid Recipients Watching TV All Day? That’s Unsupported

“Nearly 5 million able-bodied Medicaid recipients ‘merely select to not work’ and ‘spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv.’”

Scott Jennings on “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip” on July 1

Republicans defended the GOP megabill’s Medicaid modifications as focusing on a bunch of individuals they imagine shouldn’t qualify: individuals who can work however as a substitute select to remain house and chill.

A number of Republican politicians and pundits, together with CNN senior political commentator Scott Jennings, pegged that group’s dimension at about 5 million folks.

“There are like virtually 5 million able-bodied folks on Medicaid who merely select to not work,” Jennings stated July 1 on “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip.” “They spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv. And for those who can’t get off grandma’s sofa and work, I don’t wish to pay on your welfare.”

Facilities for Medicare & Medicaid Providers Administrator Mehmet Oz picked up on a few of these factors throughout a July 14 look on Fox Information. “When this system was created 60 years in the past, it by no means dawned on anybody that you’d take able-bodied people who might work and put them on Medicaid. Right this moment the common able-bodied particular person on Medicaid who doesn’t work, they watch 6.1 hours of tv or simply hang around,” Oz stated.

Medicaid is a federal-state medical insurance program that covers medical take care of lower-income folks.

Jennings cited two items of information: an estimate of what number of fewer folks would have protection due to the work requirement and an evaluation of how nonworking Medicaid recipients spend their time. However he made assumptions that the info doesn’t help.

Jennings Misrepresents CBO Estimate

The 4.8 million determine stems from a June 24 Congressional Funds Workplace evaluation of a preliminary Home model of the large tax and spending package deal. The workplace, Congress’ nonpartisan analysis arm, projected that provisions of the invoice would trigger 7.8 million fewer folks to have well being protection by 2034. They would come with 4.8 million folks beforehand eligible for Medicaid described as “able-bodied” adults 19 to 64 years outdated who haven’t any dependents and who “don’t meet the group engagement requirement” of doing “work-related actions” at the least 80 hours a month.

Other than working, doing group service and attending college additionally fulfill the group engagement requirement.

Jennings paired that statistic with a separate evaluation of how nondisabled grownup Medicaid recipients with out dependent youngsters spend their time.

However the CBO estimate was a projection — it doesn’t symbolize the present variety of nondisabled Medicaid recipients, nor does it say 4.8 million folks on this group “select to not work.” The determine represented what number of fewer folks would have protection due to the invoice’s group engagement requirement.

“The problem with Jennings’ feedback — and so they’ve been echoed elsewhere by elected Republicans — is that CBO by no means stated that 4.8 million folks had been out of compliance with the proposed work necessities; they stated that 4.8 million folks would lose protection due to the work necessities,” stated Adrianna McIntyre, an assistant professor of well being coverage and politics on the Harvard T.H. Chan Faculty of Public Well being.

Among the many Medicaid enlargement inhabitants, the regulation requires most adults with out dependent youngsters and oldsters of kids older than 13 to work or take part in different qualifying actions 80 hours each month. States might want to confirm that candidates met the work requirement for one to a few months earlier than they utilized. States may also be required to confirm that present enrollees met the work requirement for at the least a month between eligibility determinations, which might be required at the least twice a 12 months.

Analysis into Medicaid work necessities imposed on the state stage has proven that folks discovered it troublesome to satisfy them and submit documentation, contributing to protection losses.

In Arkansas, which added a piece requirement to Medicaid in 2018, a research based mostly on almost 6,000 respondents discovered that about 95% of the goal inhabitants had been already working or certified for an exemption, however a 3rd of them didn’t hear concerning the work necessities. Consequently, almost 17,000 Medicaid recipients topic to work necessities misplaced protection.

KFF discovered that adults ages 50 to 64 are extra liable to dropping Medicaid protection due to the brand new work necessities. Greater than 1 in 10 in that age group stated that they had retired, and amongst them, 28% reported being disabled, stated KFF, a well being data nonprofit that features KFF Well being Information.

Benjamin Sommers, a well being care economics professor on the Harvard Chan college, stated most of the 4.8 million “able-bodied” folks within the CBO estimate “will truly be engaged within the actions they’re alleged to be doing, and lose protection as a result of they aren’t capable of navigate the reporting necessities with the state and lose protection from crimson tape.”

When Recipients Don’t Work, It’s Not often From Lack of Curiosity

There isn’t a common definition for “able-bodied”; incapacity will be assessed in several methods. However different research provide a lot smaller estimates than 4.8 million Medicaid recipients with out dependents who can work however select to not.

Hundreds of thousands of working-age, nondisabled adults joined the Medicaid ranks in states that expanded eligibility beneath the Inexpensive Care Act. There have been about 34 million working-age nondisabled Medicaid enrollees in 2024, in line with the CBO, 15 million of whom enrolled via the ACA.

A KFF evaluation discovered a smaller determine of 26 million Medicaid-covered adults, ages 19 to 64, who don’t obtain Supplemental Safety Earnings, Social Safety Incapacity Insurance coverage, or Medicare advantages.

Amongst this group, KFF estimated, 64% had been working both full time or half time. The explanations the remaining weren’t working included caregiving (12%); sickness or incapacity (10%); retirement, lack of ability to search out work, or different cause (8%); and faculty attendance (7%).

Few folks cited lack of curiosity in working as the rationale for his or her unemployment. An City Institute research discovered 2% of Medicaid enlargement enrollees with out dependents who neither labored nor attended college — or 300,000 folks out of a projected 15 million topic to work necessities — cited a scarcity of curiosity in working as the rationale they had been unemployed.

This was according to the Brookings Establishment’s June 5 evaluation that discovered that, of 4.3 million grownup enrollees who labored fewer than 80 hours a month and didn’t have any exercise limitations or diseases, about 300,000 reported that they “didn’t work as a result of they didn’t wish to.”

Largely Girls, Largely With a Excessive Faculty Diploma or Much less

When Republicans have described nondisabled grownup Medicaid recipients, they’ve typically portrayed them as males of their 30s “enjoying video video games” of their mother and father’ basement or who “smoke weed all day.” Analysis paints a unique image.

Jane Tavares and Marc Cohen, of the College of Massachusetts-Boston Gerontology Division, researched Medicaid recipients who are usually not disabled or working, haven’t any dependent youngsters beneath 18, and are usually not in class. They cited 2023 census knowledge from the American Group Survey.

They discovered:

• The common age of this inhabitants is 41, and 26% are older than 50.
• Nearly 80% are feminine.
• Most, 80%, have a highschool schooling or much less.
• Their median particular person earnings is $0, and their median family earnings is $44,800.
• About 56% labored up to now 5 years, and 23% labored within the prior 12 months. About 30% are trying or out there for work.

“They aren’t wholesome younger adults simply hanging out,” the authors, together with well being regulation specialists Sara Rosenbaum and Alison Barkoff, wrote April 30.

“It’s clear based mostly on their prior work historical past and household dimension/earnings that they’re exceptionally poor and have doubtless left the workforce to take care of grownup youngsters or older adults,” Tavares instructed PolitiFact. “Even when these people might work, they’d have only a few job alternatives and it will come at the price of the folks they’re offering take care of.”

AEI Examine Not Definitively Linked to CBO Estimate

On the social platform X, Jennings posted the CBO letter and a Could 29 evaluation by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative assume tank, about “how nondisabled Medicaid recipients with out youngsters spend their time.” PolitiFact contacted CNN to succeed in Jennings however didn’t obtain a reply.

The writer of that research, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Kevin Corinth, analyzed survey knowledge and located that Medicaid recipients who don’t report working spend on common 6.1 hours a day “on all socializing, stress-free and leisure actions (together with tv and video video games).”

However it’s unsure whether or not the folks within the survey inhabitants he analyzed overlap with the folks included within the CBO evaluation, stated Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured.

Corinth instructed PolitiFact “it’s troublesome to say” how the inhabitants he analyzed differs from the CBO’s. Tavares, Cohen, Rosenbaum, and Barkoff stated Corinth’s dataset outlined incapacity narrowly, resulting in a “severe underestimation of incapacity” among the many inhabitants of Medicaid recipients he appeared into. It centered on Medicaid recipients who obtain Supplemental Safety Earnings or have a well being situation that forestalls them from working. The researchers stated this strategy is simply too slim as a result of the SSI program accounts for under these “most deeply impoverished adults with extreme disabilities.”

The group gave a hypothetical instance of a 54-year-old girl with a severe coronary heart situation who can work only some hours per week. She is probably not thought-about disabled beneath the SSI program, however she could also be restricted within the work she will be able to do and may have time to relaxation.

“Utilizing her ‘leisure time’ to justify a piece requirement grossly misrepresents her actuality,” the group wrote.

Corinth’s evaluation additionally reveals that nonworking Medicaid recipients spend much less time socializing, stress-free, or engaged in leisure actions than nonworking individuals who aren’t lined by Medicaid. Nonworking Medicaid recipients additionally spend extra time in search of work and doing house responsibilities and errands, it discovered.

Our Ruling

Jennings stated virtually 5 million nondisabled Medicaid recipients “merely select to not work” and “spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv.”

The 5 million determine stems from a CBO projection that 4.8 million folks would go with out protection by 2034 on account of not fulfilling the group engagement necessities. It isn’t descriptive of present enrollees and doesn’t specify that these folks select to not work.

Jennings cited an American Enterprise Institute evaluation on how nondisabled Medicaid recipients with no dependents spend their time, however it’s unsure if the inhabitants in that evaluation overlaps with that within the CBO estimate.

Present snapshots of the inhabitants Jennings described produce a smaller quantity. A survey by the City Institute discovered that 2% of Medicaid enlargement enrollees with out dependents who had been neither working nor attending college — about 300,000 folks — cited a scarcity of curiosity in working. Different analysis has discovered causes this group doesn’t work embody caregiving, sickness or incapacity, retirement, and lack of ability to search out work.

Research of nonworking Medicaid recipients have discovered the bulk are girls and have a highschool schooling or much less. Their common age is 41, and greater than half have a piece historical past up to now 5 years.

We price Jennings’ assertion False.

Our Sources

Electronic mail interview, Jane Tavares, College of Massachusetts-Boston adjunct teacher in gerontology, July 2, 2025

Electronic mail interview, Marc Cohen, College of Massachusetts-Boston professor of gerontology, July 2, 2025

Electronic mail interview, Sara Rosenbaum, George Washington College Milken Institute Faculty of Public Well being professor emerita of well being regulation and coverage, July 2, 2025

Electronic mail interview, Alison Barkoff, George Washington College Milken Institute Faculty of Public Well being affiliate professor of well being regulation and coverage, July 2, 2025

Electronic mail interview, Edwin Park, Georgetown College McCourt Faculty of Public Coverage Heart for Youngsters and Households analysis professor, July 2, 2025

Electronic mail interview, Benjamin Sommers, Harvard T.H. Chan Faculty of Public Well being professor of well being care economics, July 2, 2025

Cellphone interview, Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured, July 2, 2025

Electronic mail interview, Adrianna McIntyre, Harvard T.H. Chan Faculty of Public Well being assistant professor of well being coverage and politics, July 2, 2025

Cellphone interview, Michael Karpman, City Institute Well being Coverage Division principal analysis affiliate, July 3, 2025

Electronic mail alternate, Congressional Funds Workplace spokesperson, July 2, 2025

Electronic mail interview, Kevin Corinth, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow, July 3, 2025

X put up by Speedy Response 47, June 30, 2025

Transcript of “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip,” July 1, 2025

Congressional Funds Workplace, “Re: Info Regarding Medicaid-Associated Provisions in Title IV of H.R. 1,” June 24, 2025

Benjamin D. Sommers, M.D., Ph.D., Anna L. Goldman, M.D., M.P.A., M.P.H., Robert J. Blendon, Sc.D., E. John Orav, Ph.D., and Arnold M. Epstein, M.D., “Medicaid Work Necessities — Outcomes From the First 12 months in Arkansas,” June 19, 2019

Congressional Funds Workplace, Baseline Projections, Medicaid, June 2024

KFF, “Understanding the Intersection of Medicaid and Work: An Replace,” Could 30, 2025

City Institute, “Many Working Individuals Would Be Shut Out of Medicaid Underneath Proposed Work Necessities,” June 11, 2025

Wisconsin Watch, “Have Hundreds of thousands of Nondisabled, Working-Age Adults Been Added to Medicaid?” July 2, 2025

CBS Information, “Too Sick To Work, Some People Fear Trump’s Invoice Will Strip Their Well being Insurance coverage,” June 26, 2025

Brookings Establishment, “Any Method You Have a look at It You Lose: Medicaid Work Necessities Will Both Fall Wanting Anticipating Financial savings or Hurt Weak Beneficiaries,” June 5, 2025

X put up by Scott Jennings, July 2, 2025

American Enterprise Institute, “How Nondisabled Medicaid Recipients With out Youngsters Spend Their Time,” Could 29, 2025

Congressional Funds Workplace, “Estimated Budgetary Results of an Modification within the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 1, the One Large Lovely Invoice Act, Relative to CBO’s January 2025 Baseline,” June 29, 2025

Geiger Gibson Program in Group Well being, George Washington College Milken Institute Faculty of Public Well being, “The Elementary Flaw in ‘How Staff Spend Their Time’,” June 4, 2025

X put up by Aaron Rupar, July 1, 2025

X put up by Congressman Brandon Gill, July 2, 2025

LeadingAge LTSS Heart @UMass Boston, “Profile of Medicaid Inhabitants Age 18-64, Working and Non-Working Medicaid Beneficiaries, and ‘In a position-Bodied’ Non-Working Medicaid Beneficiaries,” Could 2025

The Milbank Quarterly, “Who’s Affected by Medicaid Work Necessities? It’s Not Who You Suppose,” April 30, 2025

KFF, “Completely different Information Supply, however Identical Outcomes: Most Adults Topic to Medicaid Work Necessities Are Working or Face Boundaries to Work,” June 25, 2025